(updated Oct 20th, 2002)

• The packing situation in Zhejing Province

It is reported that the output of M/O raw material can reach 1.798 million tons, which is 8.8% more than last season, but it is 17.8% and 22% less than 1997 and 1999.

• The output in different areas is not balanceable this season. The quantity of R/W in main area – Taizhou is estimated 433,000 tons, 16% more than last season. Quzhou area, 635,000 tons, 128,000 tons more than last season. Ningbo area, 200,000 tons, 11% more than last season. Lishui area, 150,000 tons, 10% less than last season. Songyang area, 22,000 tons, 21% less than last season.Wenzhou area area, 662,300 tons 34% less than last season.

• Other area, such as Shantou in Guangdong area is estimated 400,000 tons, 19.3% more than last year. And the volume of Manju variety in Taizhou is estimated 34,000 tons, 12% more than last year.

• The reason of increase production. From the investigation, it is close to 1,800,000 tons in whole Zhejiang Province, increase production is about 150,000 tons. The key reason is, this season is nature year of M/O, but it reduction of output, 17.8% and 22% less than 1997 and 1999. The high temperature and drought may cause this reduction of output. This high temperature is from June 30, there is over 37 days when it exceeded 35 degree. About 23,310 square orchards was effected by drought. Among that, M/O is effected most greatly, close to 13,,320 square, about 33% of total area. For example, in Wenzbou area, the leaf blasted and defoliated, even fruitage came down. During the period of growth, it was not enough rain which affected the fruitage is small. After August, there came out the broken fruitage, especially in Satsuma Town – Linghai, there is 4,995 square which has output reduction was over 30% because of drought.

• Situation of fruitage output. The quality this year is better than last season. Drought affects the fruitage small which is benefit for packing canned products. But, the fruitage were burned generally which will effect the segment to lose syrup, and make freaky segment mix with better one into one piece.

• Packing situation in places nearby Zhejiang Province

It is said that Hunan, Hubei, Fujian and Sichuan have a increase production, the ratio is about 5%-10%. Among that, 30% increase is in Hubei. But Jiangxi Province reduced about 10%, if the weather is better in Sep-Oct, the volume will be close to the level of last season.

• Analysis for purchasing price on M/O raw material

Last year, the purchasing price on raw material was steady correspondingly though it reduced at that time. It was always about RMB 1.10-1.30/kg, the average price is RMB 1.20/kg, and it reduced to RMB 1.10/kg after Spring Festival, the key reason is that most of factories collected the raw material from other provinces which can prevent the local price increasing. But, the purchasing price in Taizhou is a little higher than Ningbo and Jinhua area, because factories in Taizhou missed their tip, signed the contract with higher price before packing season. As for raw material this season, we think:

• Though the volume of raw material increases, it will be still collected from other provinces

This year, the total output of raw material increases than last season in Zhejing province, but it is not optimistic on raw material , as the increasing item is Shantou M/O and Manju variety, and in Taizhou area, the total is 352,980,000 tons, but the ripe fruitage is only 230,000 tons, this can come out 150,000 tons. According to the record of finished products 105,000 tons, it will need 135,000 tons raw material. If all of them are supplied to canned factory, the quantity just can be used. But the domestic market is also sales channel, including fresh M/o and canned M/O. So, we think a certain of part raw material must be transported from other provinces.

• Estimate the purchasing price won't be higher than last season

The price of ram material depends on the price of finished canned products mostly. Last season, the total output of canned M/O is 265,000 tons, produce and sale is equilibrium, from the quantity of shipping out, there is still 10% - 20% left. Along with the improvement of technique in factory and policy of leading funds from abroad in China, the ability of packing is expanding step by step. Another, EU will come out a protective policy limiting the importing qty of M/O from China. While factory can't self-discipline, so the phenomena of produce over sale is certain to exist, which causes the sale price of canned M/O. Moreover, tinplate increases RMB 700/ton than last year, there is no profit for factory, so they have to drive down the price of raw material. So, we think purchasing price for raw material will not higher than last season's, estimate the average purchasing price will be lower than RMB 1.20/kg, but the details will depend on that factories won't sign the contract with client blindly, won't pack blindly.

• The purchasing price of raw material in local area of Zhejiang won't be lower much

From the above analysis, the exporting volume of canned M/O products is 80% of total exporting volume in China. The local raw material has advantage of quality and environment, especially in Taizhou, xiangshan and Ninghai, also, farmer masters the technique of storage, and it becomes the structure “factory depends on farm, farmer depends factory. Farmer never worries that the raw material can't be sold out. The price is impossible to reduce to the level of purchasing price adding transportation charge in Hunan and Hubei,. Usually, the transportation fee from Hunan/Hubei to Zhejiang is about RMof Zhejiang is RMB1.00-1.10/kg, which is RMB 0.10/kg higher than local price of Zhejiang.

1st Report (updated Nov 20th, 2000)

2000/2001 SEASON CHINESE MANDARINS SITUATION

Everybody earlier expected this year crop situation would be bad as there has been cycle between bumper crop and poor crop per every year in past 5 ~ 6 years in China. However, the situation is not that simple for Chinese packer now, who may have thought it could be possible for buyer to demand as normal season. They now have to realize that how much unusually freezing weather in last winter affects Mandarins tree. Also, Chinese Government new policy on strengthening environmental equipments on each manufacturer, especially water quality treatment which will effective of Jan 1st, 2001 is now another headache for the packers who wants to keep packing after Jan 1st as they have to squeeze to come out with any idea to resolve this with submitting a stack of documentation and repairing their equipments to meet the standard.

PACKING SEASON WILL BE SHORTENED

By these inside circumstances, some experts are saying that this year packing period will be only two months (early Nov thru end Dec), if really goes it would be the shortest packing season in Chinese Mandarins ever - usually 3 months or 100 days (from end Oct thru end Feb). Lunar Calendar is also not helping them because this year Chinese New Holidays is in end January.

WHOLE VOLUME WILL BE REDUCED

Whole quantity of Canned Mandarins in Zhejiang province about 160,000 mts (9,500 ctns) from 55 ~ 70 factories. this year should be less than 100,000 mts, many expect to be 80,000 - 90,000, means about 40 % reduction.

MANY BIG SIZE IS AVAILABLE.

Normally, in the season of good crop, many medium and small sizes are available. in bad crop situation like a this year, Mandarins size is bigger also each segment is big. its good for some buyers who need only Large sized like a Korean market, but not ideal for North American market who prefer fairly medium sized products.

QUALITY CONCERN

as for quality,

RAW MATERIAL PRICING DOUBLE NOW THAN LAST SEASON, BUT IT COULD POSSIBLY JUMP SOON ....

from end of Oct, Chinese packers got actual price for packing from the farmers on Mandarins at around RMB 0.75 ~ 0.80 per 500 g (U$ 0.19 per KG). they had no way to accept this price as it indicated already double than last season's average price of about U$ 0.09 per KG.

they started to looking at another province, such as Hunan, Hubei province and Shanghai (Congming Island)

then, have been using raw material from other province with paying so high trucking charges. packers are hoping to give some pressure to local farmers so that keep current raw material price U$ 0.19 / KG to finish.

PRICE

but, very seldom expects raw material price can be same when peaking packing starts from around early Dec. some saying it will reach U$ 0.33 / KG (almost 4 times than last season). even though the situation would, HOPEFULLY, not be such worse this is showing how Chinese packers are now in worry. maybe for them, not a small portion of increase of carton and label cost, inland transportation fee, sugar price than last year would not be big thing as raw material increase influence the most.

MARKET DEMAND

Chinese will have to fight against Spanish products, even though it already proved by world market that Chinese quality superior as much firm segments with less broken ratio, especially Euro's weakening is hurting their business to German market.

Canada is still quite firm but USA is question due to too many loading last year, reportedly 40 % increase in 99/00 season.

Japanese higher price would be hope at this time, however it also hard to tell because Japanese brought about double volume in last season with presuming bad season this year.

so, can it be happened that some packers do not pack many, or give up packing. if any thing happen like this, quantity will be considerably reduced. but it has not been happened in past 5 years.

we keep our eyes on how things goes, the first turning point should be around early Dec when other province's raw material is no longer available (due to their earlier season start / short period), then all Zhejiang factories have to use local raw material somehow. at this time, pricing from factory appears about 25 - 30 % higher than last season for 11 oz case. many experts bet 70 % to more increasing, 30 % in the side of same as this begging price or dropping to 15 - 25 % increase.

WE WILL SECURE QUANTITY AND QUALITY

our joint-factory, Hanfumin (code LH) will be packing about 3,500 mts around 200 mts. we started packing 11 oz, 15 oz, 30 oz and A 10 since Nov 1st.

Merry handled about 5,200 mts (320 fcl) total in last season. will try to keep same or more than that with much improving our quality assurance system.

Reporting Inspection Quality,

our staffs in Shanghai, Tony, Angela and Mr. Huang (of course, including me) will regularly visit the factory during whole packing season, then keep you updated thru this web page or email communication.

will inspect every lot before shipment and will provide its report to the buyers stating colour/size/pH degree/broken ratio/can integrity/ sugar count etc.

LOOKING AHEAD NEW PRODUCTS

Merry is, with great interests, looking at new packaging type products such as 4 oz Plastic Bowl and now studying with many experts on this parts. Merry who has recently been developed many item from China (after successful development into worldwide market in Korea for many Canned Seafoods item 20-30 years ago by Mr. Dongho Chung, President) such as Chinese Canned Pink Salmon / Chinese Canned Shrimp / Chinese Canned Crabmeat etc has confidence of launching any item to meet the change of world markets.

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